Even though people attribute lots of time and attention to specific events, almost religiously, predicting the outcome of said events requires no skills or unique insight.
Take a football match. Connaisseurs will have theories for days, predicting what will happen or rationalizing what has occurred.
Little do they know, it’s all random.
Two goals. That’s the number of goals with the highest probability to be scored throughout a match. Provided that the two teams are well matched. Other than that, predicting which team will win is mathematically impossible.
Maybe that’s what makes it interesting?
Events that can’t be expressed in a statistical model shouldn’t be analyzed statistically.