People often get promoted as a result of past performance. What’s true of investing is also true of talent. Past performance is no indicator of future results.
It’s slightly more nuanced than that. If a talent typically performed well over the past, chances are, they may continue to do so. Provided there are no fundamental changes regarding the job content, trauma is suffered, and the talent feels valued and appreciated.
However, as a result of a promotion, the talent might now be responsible for other people. The way the talent has to report has now completely changed. If reporting costs much effort, it might be the case that there was no desire to change job (content) or be promoted (within the company) for starters.
Here is a simple solution; ask. Cater to the expectations of talent and ask them what they want, rather than making an unsolicited decision for them.